Alliance against .......?

There is a sudden push by John Howard to form security alliances with some of our northern neighbours. One has just been signed with Japan. Suddenly there is a talk about enlisting India into the alliance (see Dennis Shanahan’s article in The Australian today

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21384779-601,00.html) which US Vice President Cheney apparently raised with Howard in his recent trip Down Under after it was rejected by Bush administration. Of course the deputy sheriff could not bring himself to refuse this one.

I learnt from one of Lee Kuan Yew’s speeches many decades ago that when there is a call for an alliance the logical question is “against whom?” Howard carefully dropped the hint by saying that he thought China not be upset. We are all too used to Howard’s dog whistling to know that he usually means what he denies. Shanahan had no qualms about pointing out that an alliance with Japan and India would be an encircling of China.

It would suit the US paranoia about China’s economic growth. But what is there for Australia?

Is it a coincidence that Opposition leader Rudd who is doing spectacularly in the polls despite all the mud slinging, happens to be fluent in Mandarin apart from other things Chinese? Is it a coincidence that Howard’s own constituency may become vulnerable because of the increased number of Chinese and other Asian migrants who would be impressed by Rudd language skills?

Howard is experienced enough to know that China is not going to be bothered by a few gestures for internal consumption. He also knows from experience that he can scare some of his older votes with the old fear of China and of someone like Rudd who can be cast as a Sinophile. He is probably hoping that increasing distrusts of China would ultimately discourage Rudd from using his powerful language weapon in the elections later this year.

The sacrificing of some foreign policies can be a small price to pay to retain one’s power.